CERAWeek Leaders share varied views on Haynesville while Citadel places their bet
Last week, several executives and industry leaders convened at CERAWeek to discuss the current state and future of energy. BP CEO Murray Auchincloss announced a shift in strategies, focusing more resources on oil and gas rather than renewable energy. Referencing predicted increases in natural gas prices, Auchincloss stated “the time has come for the Haynesville.” Gordon Huddleston, president and partner at Aethon Energy, is a bit more cautious of the Haynesville, saying that the company would like to see prices above $5/Mcf for a sustained period – “beyond ’26 into ’27 and ’28.” He explains that this caution comes from the market volatility in recent years, elaborating that operators acted on predicted demand increases, but as prices fell, it pushed operators to cut production and delay turning wells to sales. Using TGS Well Data Analytics, we can confirm that the Haynesville production peaks at 15.6 Bcf/day in 2023 trailing a gas price peak of $9.62/Mcf in 2022 (Figure 1). 
Figure 1. Natural gas price compared to Haynesville gas production
While Aethon exercises caution before ramping up drilling and production from the Haynesville, large hedge fund company Citadel seeks to ensure they are well positioned for natural gas price increases and makes their investment into the Haynesville with a roughly $1 billion purchase of Paloma Natural Resources (PNG), an independent Haynesville operator. PNG’s well locations on the Louisiana side of the Haynesville can be seen in Figure 2. While Figure 3 shows PNG’s recent production has decreased to 250 MMcf/day, their peak production just two years ago was 626 MMcf/day during the height of recent gas prices. 
Figure 2. TGS Well Data Analytics application image showing PNG well locations
Figure 3. TGS Well Data Analytics application image showing PNG’s historical daily gas production
The deal grants the hedge fund access to acreage and producing assets in the U.S., though it will not directly operate them. Citadel's expansion into the drilling and production sector is uncommon for a hedge fund and highlights the growing interest in natural gas as prices are expected to rise. US EIA has recently updated their forecast to predict an average annual price of $4.35/mcf for 2025 and $4.64/mcf for 2026, citing increasing LNG demand and export capacity, as well as increased electricity generation for data centers as some of the factors leading to the increase. These prices are not quite as high as Aethon is hoping for, but Citadel will be well-positioned to leverage PNG’s 57,000 net mineral acres in prime gas-producing regions near upcoming export terminals, along with approximately 60 undeveloped Haynesville locations, to restore PNG’s previous peak production and capitalize on higher prices when the time is right. While views may vary in degree of optimism, BP, Aethon, and now Citadel all have prominent stakes in the Haynesville and are in great positions for success should prices prove favorable.
With TGS Well Data Analytics, this type of comparative analysis and benchmarking can be done in minutes. For more information about TGS Well Data Analytics or to schedule a demo, contact us at WDPSales@tgs.com.